Kremlin officials are dependent on the prospect of lucrative investment agreements for US energy companies, apparently seeking to convince President Trump that large economic benefits can come from the walls with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine and by removed economic sanctions on Russia.
There is no doubt that Russia has large oil and natural gas trout, but an attempt to seduce American or other Western energy companies to undertake Russian projects are likely to encounter skepticism, not only because of history of history the end of companies in Russia.
However, Kirill Dmitriev, a Kremlin financial official, expressed optimism last week about the perspective, throwing the potential for investment opportunities from Western companies, including oil producers.
Energy companies will have to weigh access to luggage of oil and natural gas against potential obstacles, including damaging the reputation from participating in an industry that has financially supported a government that waged a war against its neighbor.
“Russia has large resources and scale it always matters” for large energy companies, said Ben Cahill, an Energy Analyst at the University of Texas in Austin. “But underground danger is the killer,” he added, using the industry parliament for political and legal problems.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union more than three decades ago, Western energy giants including exxon mobile, BP and shell spent years carving a role for themselves in the Russian oil industry.
But when Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022, all of these companies felt obliged to either put their businesses on the ice or leave, leading to billions of dollars to repayment. During their involvement in Russia, companies including BP, London Energy Giant, encountered raids on their offices and other harassments.
“How many of them would you tell you they had a happy experience?” Quest said Gustafson, a government professor at Georgetown University who wrote several books on the Russian Energy Industry.
However, it seems that there are possible ways for oil companies to return to Russia. For example, Exxon Mobile gave up his role in a valuable oil project he had operated on the island of Sakhalin in the Far Russian East for 20 years, leaving his shares in limbo. “There is a potential for return,” said John Gawthorp, an Author in Argus Media, a research firm in London.
Exxon Mobile was also considered that she had a relatively good relationship with her Russian partner Rosneft, the state -controlled oil company. And she had planned to participate in other companies, including work in the Arctic, where she pierced a decade ago, and the drilling of the clay. These activities were blocked by sanctions after receiving Russia Crimea in 2014.
Exxon Mobile refused to comment on resumption of work in Russia. She wrote $ 4.6 billion on the Sakhalin project, saying in a 2023 regulatory representation that management considered the “holding value” of the asset that could not be recovered.
Returndo return of Western companies in Russia is likely to seek the end of the Ukraine conflict, and the removal of widespread sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Russian oil -related activities and entities. Analysts say it can become easier for US companies to return than for their European counterparts because Washington seems more prone than Brussels to remove restrictions.
Energy giants, whose projects need years to complete, will also have to be convinced that they will not end up facing new restrictions in a few years in the event of a government change in the United States or renewed aggression from Russia.
“It would be very surprising to me if any US company made a big investment in Russia,” said Edward Fishman, a former senior State Department official for Iran and the author of a future book on sanctions and Called “Chokepoints: American Power in the Era of Economic War.”
Taking conclusions from the Russian industry may also not be in the interest of parts of the American Energy Industry. For example, the establishment of US curves imposed by the Biden administration aimed at exports of Russian liquid natural gas are likely to create more LNG competition from the United States, which has replaced Russian gas in Europe over the past three years. “Russian LNG in the Global Market is a direct USLNG competitor,” said James Waddell, a gas analyst in aspects, a research firm. “This is not something the American administration would be ready to donate easily.”
Analysts also say the energy industry has changed since the early part of this century. Boom Shale Bum has given companies like Exxon Mobile and Chevron Alternatives for potentially more dangerous international shows.
“American Majes have much more attractive opportunities elsewhere in the world,” including the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and Guyana, said Tatiana Mitrova, a research at Columbia University Center for Global Energy Policy. “Why should Russia choose, with its high political risks?”
Analysts say energy companies can also no longer see the potential reward in Russia that was there after the fall of the Soviet Union.
At that time, the application of Western technology to Russia’s large resources greatly increased Russia’s production. This feat is unlikely to be repeated. Companies would probably not tell their shareholders that “they are rushing again to take advantage of a generative opportunity,” said Peter Mcnally, a global head of sector analysts at Treat Bridge, a New York research firm.
During the three years of sanctions, Russia has developed its technologies and received support from China and India, now key clients for its oil. “For me, it’s a question whether American companies will be welcomed as equal partners,” Ms Mitrova said.
The Russian oil industry and the government have always been ambivalent to share wealth with foreign investors. The BP collected a successful Russian oil company in the early part of this century, but was subject to harassment including raids in its premises by armed security personnel. Bob Dudley, the head of the local company, who later became the chief executive of the BP, was forced to leave Russia.
In 2013, the BP managed to change its Russian properties for a package including nearly 20 percent of the shares in Rosneft, the largest Russian oil company after the occupation of Ukraine, BP abandoned its two countries aboard of the company, stopped reporting its Russian income, and received a $ 24.4 billion fee. Shares dividends are being paid in Russian Banking Limited Accounts in which BP has no access.
Earlier this month, Murray Auchincloss, the current BP chief executive, asked an analyst to turn a more normal approach to Russian holding, stressing that Rosneft remained under sanctions by more than a dozen seats. “Our main focus is now on deviation of stock,” he said.
Of all the major Western Energy Companies, France’s Totalienergies seem to be best established to return to business as normal in Russia if the political situation allows. The company wrote $ 14.8 billion in its Russian business in 2022, but it continued to import liquefied natural gas from a structure called Yamal that helped develop in Russian Arctic with Novatek, a Russian gas company in which the French company owns a 19 percentage of shares. Totalienergies refused to comment, but said that these deliveries contribute to energy security in Europe.
Analysts say return can be easier for smaller Western companies that provide services such as plumbing and other technical support. SLB, former -Schlumberger, is one of the largest companies and continues to work in Russia, saying it is in line with sanctions.
These companies “trained a large number of Russian oil workers, who are the backbone of the industry today, now that the Westerners have largely left,” Mr. Gustafson in his next book, “Perfect Storm”.
Rebecca F. Elliott Contributed Reporting.